Wine Talk

Snooth User: JonDerry

End to Cheap Wine Pricing Near

Posted by JonDerry, Oct 10, 2012.

Interesting info on the global wine supply, and how over-supply has kept pricing low from 2004-10, and with 2012 looking like a weak production year in France, there's a chance for Australia to make up the difference:

Wine Industry Insight Article

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Replies

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Reply by LOLMAM, Oct 10, 2012.

ok, I am totally confused, that is easy for this person to be!  Are we speaking about port wine or wine in general???  Mollie

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Reply by gregt, Oct 11, 2012.

Well, since nothing in the article mentioned Port, let's start there . . .

Short year in some parts of the world but my guess it that there's still going to be a lot of wine out there from countries that weren't even on the radar a few years ago, not to mention all the rediscovered places in other countries. Still a good time to be a customer I think. 

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Reply by JonDerry, Oct 11, 2012.

Yeah, should definitely be interesting...kind of like the fact that Bordeaux's being knocked down a peg in 2011, 12. It's also going to be interesting how California does with 2010 and 11, though I've heard they still got enough sun (always) to ripen Cabernet, it'll be interesting to see the stylistic changes and trends that might come about. Will be a bit of a wait until 2012's are ready.

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Reply by EMark, Oct 11, 2012.

One of the things that I really appreciate about the Snooth Forum is that a vast majority of posts are very well written--and this includes contributors for whom English is not their native language.  So, congratulations to all.

By contrast, I am amazed that a "reporter" in the article that Jon shared has difficulty correctly identifying her source.  In her essay Ms. Burke identifies the creator of the "wine quarterly report" variously as

  1. Ronobank
  2. Robobank
  3. Rabobank

In addition to the author I criticize the editor (if there was one) for allowing this inconsistency to pass.

To, I hope, provide some clarification, I suspect the report was created by Rabobank.  Rabobank is a Netherlands-based entity that came into California a few years ago and bought up several mid-sized agriculture-focused banks in Chico, Salinas, Arroyo Grande and Imperial Valley.

Getting back to the actual purpose of this thread, the two comments following the article were pretty interesting, although, again, neither of them was written as clearly as they could have been.  Both seem to disagree with the idea that prices would be rising for the consumer in the near term.

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Reply by JonDerry, Oct 11, 2012.

Thanks for doing some digging on the report Mark, I saw it posted by a well regarded MW in training and thought it was an interesting topic for discussion (especially since there didn't seem to be enough fresh posts of late)...the article didn't seem very impressive to me either, but the idea makes sense that wine (at the low end at least), should be on the rise soon. 

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Reply by EMark, Oct 11, 2012.

I agree, completely, Jon.  It is an iteresting topic--especially, to me as a consumer. 

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Reply by gregt, Oct 11, 2012.

Funny take EMark.  So I looked back at the article and you're right.  It's actually quite sloppy even in the first four paragraphs.

"A massive global over-supply of wine from 2004 to 2010 that caused prices to plummet looks set to end this year. . .

The massive global oversupply of wine for four years up to 2010 that caused prices to plummet let to many growers to ripping up vines."

It let?

And then, 2004 to 2010 is four years?

But it doesn't have much internal logic either - there's going to be a shortage of wine and that will cause prices to rise.  But a little later they say it's a chance for Australia to pick up the shortfall, which will cause prices to . . . what?

Will that Australian deluge cancel out the reduction in Europe? Or will prices still rise even tho good old Australia will ensure that there's going to be the same amount of wine on the European shelves?

And is it a one-for-one trade anyway? Is wine that fungible?

Interesting topic, poorly executed. I'm totally starting to get that whole Port thing.

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Reply by Lucha Vino, Oct 12, 2012.

From everything I hear, 2012 is going to be a good year for Washington.  We had a warmer (and drier) summer than usual.  That lead to higher yields and an earlier harvest.  i don't have any facts to point to, but have heard people discussing an over abundance of grapes which could (should?) translate into more Washington wine production at a lower price point. 

Wineries contracts will be easily filled with top quality grapes.  The "left overs" should wind up somewhere besides the vineyard floor...

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Reply by outthere, Oct 13, 2012.

Local growers here in Sonoma County are selling surplus premium grapes on the cheap due to over-supply. 2012 will be the SoCo vintage to find that gem wine made from these premium grapes but not labeled as such to protect the grower.

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Reply by napagirl68, Oct 16, 2012.

OT is correct.... this harvest has been a record boom here in Nor CA, Yes.... these grapes will travel far!

http://blogs.sacbee.com/dining/archives/2012/09/2012-wine-grape.html

And yes, they are still harvesting!

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Reply by zufrieden, Oct 26, 2012.

I am an economist and I can say that there is no reason to believe that prices will rise anytime in the future.  Now, if you love Bourgogne ou Bordeaux, j'en suis desolee.  Peut etre, etc... I will say that other producers with less (shall we say) cache will see lower demand for their products.  We will win.  You will see.

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Reply by Richard Foxall, Oct 27, 2012.

Shiners!

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Reply by JonDerry, Oct 27, 2012.

Disclaimer: This was always about the Charles Shaw's of the world, not the luxury market. Hopefully, as with other markets, the luxury brands see a correction, though not very many of us are buying expensive wines these days. 

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Reply by JonDerry, Jan 16, 2013.

Charles Shaw up to $2.49 in CA

 

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Reply by EMark, Jan 16, 2013.

I think it's been "3-buck Chuck" in most of the country for a few years.  I guess we're catching up in California.

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Reply by napagirl68, Jan 18, 2013.

Reply by JonDerry, Jan 16.

Charles Shaw up to $2.49 in CA

It Obamanomics!   And he's hitting the the most underprivileged! 

Just kidding.. sort of.  Taxes higher, even thunderbird going up, LOL!

OK- just for laughs, ck out this site- for the "economical drunkard" LOL! and  WOW.. scary.

http://www.bumwine.com/

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Reply by amour, Jan 23, 2013.

Did you guys hear about the rise in craft beer drinking....and that wine is being overtaken by craft beer in San Francisco!!!

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Reply by amour, Jan 23, 2013.

A Sotheby CEO recently described the U.S. wine market as "RESURGENT"; noting the strong demand from Latin America generally and Brazil in particular, as well as Mexico.  (This is general commentary,  we need analysis..... and just what it will mean for prices is another story, of course!)

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Reply by Terence Pang, Jan 27, 2013.

I've been trying to write an article on cheap Australian alternative varietal whites, and 2 months on, I'm struggling to form a comprehensive list. So I took my mind off this assignment by going to the Ballarat Beer Festival for 150 craft beers! I think I've just crossed a line...

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Reply by amour, Jan 28, 2013.

Terrence Pang, how interesting!

We must keep wine on the Front Burner, though! 

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